2026: Hoping for peace in a turbulent world
India, Dec. 31 -- The world hopes for a quiet 2026, even if it is boring. A year without wars and tariff ambushes, without traumatic morning headlines.
However, hopes can be mirages. Principally, most countries will follow every word and action of (US President Donald) Trump. Trump will be the fulcrum of a transactional world.
Hopefully, Trump's peace plan will be signed by Ukraine and Russia. At least, partially. It meets two central principles. First, Ukraine will not join NATO. Second, Ukraine can join the European Union. The remaining 26 points can be thrashed out. The Ukrainians must live normal lives again, without the fear of bombs raining on them every night. Over a million soldiers and civilians have died in this brutal war.
The world may continue in a state of war. Infantry battles have been replaced by drones. Social media and AI are the new arms of combat. Fears of a nuclear war grow, as (Russian President Vladimir) Putin tests underwater drones with nuclear warheads and America and China resume nuclear tests.
The Israel-Gaza ceasefire may hold. Yet, fighting may continue. Minor infractions will trigger gunfire. Yes, women will agonise. Children will starve. More generations will swear vengeance. This has been the story of Palestine for over a hundred years. Sad.
President Trump can focus on dispersing peace and readying the new East-wing ballroom, since undocumented immigrants no longer see America as a haven. They seek livelihoods, not handcuffs. Hopefully, Trump may mellow. Underlying fears permeate many democracies, with undeclared emergencies.
European nations will struggle to align their global outlook. Britain and France are struggling with persistent leadership changes. Europe lacks money and arms to make its voice credible. Right-wing populism will continue to rise. And oppose immigration. Yet, the USA and Europe are top destinations for the ambitious.
China will strengthen its wings. President Xi will build railway bridges and roads across Africa. The Middle East will "salaam" Trump with pomp. India will focus on infrastructure expansion. Pakistan will waltz to the eulogies of Trump.
Global growth will plateau just below 3%, due to geopolitical uncertainties. Growth in Western countries will hover around 1.5%. China and India could grow at around 5/6%. Trump will continue deploying tariffs to chastise noncompliant nations.
In a world engrossed with wars and tariffs, who will focus on growth or poverty reduction? The common person is becoming nihilistic, condemned to bleakness.
Inflation of 8-15% in the costs of essentials like flour and vegetables will agonise people. Saving money may be tough. Affordability of basics like food, housing, education, and transport is crucial. Politicians do not understand this.
The chasm between the affluent and the poor is widening. According to Oxfam, 1% of the world's rich control 45% of the global wealth. And 44% of the world population lives below the poverty line of US $6.85 per day. Poverty in Asia and Africa is dehumanising.
Oil prices will hover around US $55-58 per barrel. They may drop lower, due to economic despondency.
Wars and tariffs triggered catalytic dances in gold prices. Nations to taxi drivers bought it. Prices spiralled to over Rs.12,000 per gram, from Rs.8,000 in 2024. Gold price may touch Rs.15,000 per gram in 2026. It is an attractive buy in an ambiguous world. The stock market will allure. However, watch companies are impacted by discontinuities in technology or tariffs. Real estate will be a wise investment. The world population is augmenting, but land is finite.
Globalisation with free movement of talent and goods across borders is ebbing. Unemployment will become a pivotal issue. Many governments disburse cash and food to people. It is time for free medicines also.
Corporations are shovelling US$ 2 trillion in artificial intelligence research. However, AI could be a fierce double-edged knife. The rich and the mega-corporations could prosper, but the middle classes could lose livelihoods.
The FIFA World Cup will divert attention from wars and inflation. The Winter Olympics and the T20 cricket World Cup will delight.
China and Dubai are gearing up for air taxis. Perhaps driverless. The era of Bond movies seems to have receded. Is it time for a girl Bond? Emily Blunt? Scarlett Johansson? Self-made influencers will be the new stars.
My soulmate Patricia is war weary. She wants to return to Belem in Brazil. Here, the mouth of the mammoth Amazon River is 150 miles wide as it flows into the Atlantic Ocean. It is around 300 miles into the ocean, before the waters merge. It is serene. We cannot afford this trip. Let's see. Normally, Patricia prevails....
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