New Delhi, Aug. 12 -- We will (hopefully) have GDP statistics for the April-June quarter by the end of this month. There is complete unanimity that the June quarter will see an economic contraction vis-a-vis last year. India was under a strict lockdown for most of this period (two of the three months, with lockdowns continuing for longer in some parts of the country). The real question is what has happened to economic activity from July onwards. Is it recovering with the easing of lockdown restrictions? Has it plateaued with cases still rising and the imposition of intermittent lockdowns? Or has it become worse?

There is also the question of whether the recovery is merely sequential - current month over previous month - or strong enough to...