Dehradun, April 19 -- It has become clear in a sizeable number of constituencies, nationwide, which candidate will be pitted against whom. This has brought further clarity on the likelihood of victories for each side. In some, there are straight contests between two candidates, while in others it is three-cornered. In some, even more. Statistically, therefore, it becomes easier for analysts to work out the various permutations and combinations based on caste, community and other interests.

The Kangana Ranaut versus Vikramaditya contest in Himachal's Mandi, for instance, is between two prominent personalities whose presence to some extent becomes more significant than the 'larger' national issues over which the election is taking place. Bef...