Nepal, July 6 -- President Alexander Lukashenko has been ruling Belarus with an iron fist since 1994. But his grip on the country has weakened significantly in recent months, and he may well be out after the presidential election scheduled for August 9. Such an outcome would not only shake up Belarus; it also would give Russian President Vladimir Putin serious cause for concern.

At the beginning of 2020, Lukashenko seemed unchallengeable. Most Belarusians believed that their strongman leader would win a sixth term in office in the same corrupt way that he had secured his previous victories. And even Lukashenko's opponents suddenly went silent as he defended Belarusian sovereignty in the face of Putin's plans to 'integrate' the two post-S...