Nepal, Feb. 7 -- Political predictions are a tough affair, more so in Nepal, where no one knows which way the wind will blow. Even those who keenly follow developments are often surprised by what Nepali politics dishes up-almost every day.

About six and a half months ago, it looked like the communist combo of the CPN (UML) and the Maoist Centre was doing just fine-in terms of bonhomie rather than governance. Yet, leave aside the analysts, even party members were taken by surprise when UML Chair KP Sharma Oli and Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba reached an agreement to form a new coalition to rotate the prime ministership. They tossed in a pretext of constitutional amendments, only for Prime Minister Oli to proclaim five month...