Pakistan, May 29 -- Senior Afghan Taliban commander Saeedullah Saeed's public warning to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to stop attacks across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border has prompted some in Islamabad to speak of a turning point. Those who have followed this region's troubled history, however, would do well to be cautious. This is not the first time Kabul has offered reassurances, and it is unlikely to be the last. What matters is not the statement, but whether anything changes on the ground.

The TTP has operated from Afghan soil with impunity for years. Pakistan has raised this issue at every forum. The response, at least until now, has been silence or denial. The Taliban's sudden shift suggests not a change of heart, but a sh...