Published on, Sept. 25 -- September 25, 2025 1:28 AM

The OECD's latest outlook frames 2025 as a year of fragile resilience. Global GDP is projected to expand by 3.2% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024, while the IMF's July update puts growth slightly lower at 3.0%. On the surface, these are not alarming numbers. But what troubles me most is the underlying dynamic: policy uncertainty has become the single greatest drag on demand. Tariff escalations, stop-and-start fiscal rules, and contested central-bank independence are leaving businesses hesitant to invest and households cautious to spend.

As I write this, what strikes me most is not just the slowdown itself, but the asymmetry of responses. Different economies are grappling with uncertain...