Pakistan, June 10 -- The Pakistan Economic Survey for FY25 tells a story of recovery. Inflation has slowed, the current account recorded a surplus of $1.2 billion in the first 10 months, and GDP is projected to grow by 3.6 per cent. On paper, the macro picture appears steadier than it has in years and the finance minister might be justified in calling this "fantastic growth" a proof of fiscal discipline. The subtext is clear: stabilisation has been achieved, and the government is now poised to pivot to growth.

This story is compelling. Yet it remains incomplete.

In recent months, demand has remained suppressed, with imports throttled and industry deprived of key inputs. Large-scale manufacturing contracted by 2.4 per cent year-on-year, ...