Pakistan, Oct. 18 -- Pakistan has once again secured an IMF lifeline: a $1.2 billion tranche that offers short-term relief and long-term uncertainty. The staff-level agreement, covering both the Extended Fund Facility and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, reassures creditors and briefly lifts market confidence. For a few days, the stock exchanges will soar, and official statements will celebrate stability. Beneath that optimism, however, the foundations remain as fragile as before.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, after meeting IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva in Washington, was unusually candid. "This will put a dent in our GDP growth number," he said, acknowledging that recent floods had crippled agriculture and trade. He p...