DAR ES SALAAM, July 23 -- WHEN Tanzania unveiled its Dira ya Taifa ya Maendeleo 2050, it outlined a bold ambition: becoming an upper-middle-income country with a per capita income of at least USD 7,000 by 2050. With a projected population of roughly 143 million by that time, the implied economic target is staggering—Tanzania would need to grow its economy to USD 1 trillion in constant terms. To reach this, it must sustain average annual GDP growth between 8 percent and 10 percent for the next 25 years. The question is not whether such ambition is desirable—but whether its mathematically and institutionally achievable.

To appreciate the scale of this ambition, consider the following. In 2024, Tanzanias economy stands at roughl...