Dar es Salaam, July 1 -- TOMORROW, the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) will hold its seventh Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting since introducing the Central Bank Rate (CBR) in January 2024.

With the benchmark rate currently at 6.0 percent, this decision arrives during a period of relative domestic calm, yet with heightened interest from economists, investors, and policymakers—especially with general elections just three months away.

The core question, as W. Edwards Deming famously quipped, isnt just “what will the BoT do?”, but rather, “what will the data compel them to do?” Its precisely this data-driven inquiry well delve into today. To make sense of all this and help us predict what the BoT might do, I buil...