Uganda, Oct. 3 -- The role of risk and luck in our lives seems to be underrated. This observation was prompted by a discussion about the development paths taken by different nations.
We had observed (and were wondering) why nations with distinctly similar geographies and resource endowments ended up on different development paths.
While we all agreed that leadership and institutionalism were important aspects in the outcomes that different nations achieved, my colleagues did not seem to believe that luck also played a role in these outcomes.
First to risk. In simple terms, risk is what remains after you have accounted for all possible events and outcomes. But the world is driven by tails. That means that a few random variables (events) a...