Dhaka, Nov. 2 -- For almost 20 years Tarique Rahman has been the BNP's most influential figure never to face a ballot paper despite pulling the levers from exile in London. Asked in an early-October interview with BBC Bangla if he would stand in next general election, the de facto party chief replied without hedging: "Yes, In shaa Allah (God willing)."

Where, then?

BNP has yet to announce his constituency. Discussions with senior party figures suggest he is most likely to choose Bogura, his late father former president Ziaur Rahman's birthplace, a shrine of sorts for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

His mother, the three-time former prime minister Khaleda Zia, has treated its twin seats, Bogura-6 (Sadar) and Bogura-7 (Gabtali-Shahjaha...