Dhaka, Oct. 18 -- Economic growth around the world has slowed to a crawl but (so far) there are few signs of the second-round effects on jobs, income and spending that would turn a significant slowdown into an outright recession.

The International Monetary Fund has forecast global output will increase by just 3.0% this year, the slowest expansion since the recession of 2008/09 ("World economic outlook", IMF, Oct. 15).

The Fund expects growth to accelerate slightly to 3.4% next year but only because of a slightly better performance in economies such as Turkey and Argentina currently under severe strain.

The slowdown has been synchronised globally and centred on manufacturing, investment and trade as rising tariffs and increased policy u...