Dhaka, Feb. 11 -- As Bangladesh heads to the polls, the broad contours of the election are largely visible. Yet beneath that surface clarity lies a smaller, more volatile terrain.

Across the country, dozens of constituencies have emerged where party arithmetic no longer holds, traditional loyalties have blurred, and voters themselves appear undecided until the final hours.

In these seats, "rebel" candidates disrupt long-set calculations, and silent vote banks -- once taken for granted -- could quietly decide who wins and who falls short.

Even without the Awami League on the ballot, its dormant support base looms large. Alongside minority voters and local power brokers, it remains capable of tipping contests that are balanced on a knife...