Kenya, July 30 -- Political analyst Prof. Peter Kagwanja has sparked debate by predicting a potential "Ruto-Gachagua reunion 2027" ahead of Kenya's general elections, suggesting President William Ruto and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua may reconcile to secure the vote-rich Mount Kenya region.

Speaking on a local TV station on July 29, Kagwanja argued that political realities, particularly Ruto's need for Mount Kenya's support, could drive a handshake despite their fallout following Gachagua's October 2024 impeachment.

The claim comes as Gachagua's influence grows through his Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), while Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) faces challenges in the region, fueling speculation about 2027 alliances.

Kagwanja's prediction hinges on Ruto's recognition that Mount Kenya, which delivered 47% of its votes to him in 2022, is critical for his re-election bid despite his impeachment and has emerged as a key figure in the region, leveraging his Wamunyoro home as a political hub to rally supporters.

Kagwanja noted, "The anger in Mount Kenya over betrayal is what will shape the 2027 election," suggesting Ruto may seek a coalition to regain trust. A potential reunion could marginalise opposition leader Raila Odinga, with Kagwanja stating, "Raila will be left out" if the two unite on a platform of national equality.

Since his impeachment, Gachagua has solidified his status as a regional kingpin, hosting delegations from Ukambani, Maasailand, and Kisii at his Nyeri home.

His DCP, launched on May 15, 2025, aims to field candidates across all elective positions, targeting UDA's dominance in Mount Kenya and Nairobi. Kagwanja defended Gachagua against tribalism accusations, arguing it's unfair to label him for advocating regional unity when similar efforts in 2022 were praised as nationalist.

Ruto's re-election campaign, bolstered by economic gains like a strengthened shilling (from KSh 162 to KSh 129) and the Affordable Housing Programme's 250,000 jobs, faces hurdles in Mount Kenya, where his popularity has waned.

His December 2024 meeting with Uhuru Kenyatta, reported by the Nation, signals efforts to mend ties with the region, but Gachagua's influence complicates this.

Kagwanja warned that Ruto's allies, like Kimani Ichung'wah, risk alienating voters by branding Gachagua tribal. The 23 pending by-elections in 2025 will test Ruto's grip against Gachagua's DCP and opposition forces.

Gachagua's alliance with opposition leaders like Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, and Fred Matiang'i, formed under the People's Liberation Party and Wiper, aims to field a single candidate against Ruto in 2027.

Kagwanja suggested Gachagua's regional clout makes him a potential kingmaker, possibly backing Musyoka. However, Homa Bay MP Peter Kaluma dismissed this coalition's chances, claiming Ruto's broad-based alliance across Nyanza, Rift Valley, and Nairobi secures 2027.

In Kenya and beyond, the Ruto-Gachagua saga captivates audiences, with people predicting odds on 2027 outcomes. In Nairobi, fans compare the potential reunion to past political handshakes, like Uhuru-Raila in 2018.

Kagwanja's claim has sparked speculation in betting markets, with odds favouring a coalition over Gachagua running independently, especially as his impeachment bars him from office unless overturned, per Nairobi Law Monthly.

A reunion faces obstacles, including Gachagua's accusations that Ruto orchestrated attacks on his events, such as the Mwiki PCEA church chaos in April 2025.

Gachagua's vow to ensure Ruto's one-term presidency, expressed during a Boston diaspora event, suggests deep mistrust, per Nairobi Law Monthly.

Kagwanja acknowledged Ruto's allies' aggressive tactics, like online propaganda and heckling, could hinder reconciliation. Yet, he emphasised that Mount Kenya's "one man, one vote, one shilling" sentiment, amplified at Limuru III, may force Ruto to negotiate.

The 2027 elections hinge on Mount Kenya's 4.5 million votes, which Ruto secured in 2022. Kagwanja's prediction of a Ruto-Gachagua reunion could reshape alliances, potentially sidelining Odinga and weakening UDA's rivals.

However, Gachagua's DCP and opposition unity efforts, including Musyoka's candidacy, pose a formidable challenge. As by-elections loom, testing Ruto's and Gachagua's influence, Kenya's political landscape remains fluid, with Kagwanja urging mature politics focused on development to avoid ethnic divisions

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Published by HT Digital Content Services with permission from Bana Kenya.