New Delhi, Jan. 28 -- Global trade is entering 2026 at a pivotal moment, with policy decisions and geopolitical shifts set to play a larger role than cyclical demand, according to a new report by HSBC Global Research.

After a volatile yet resilient 2025, the outlook for the coming year is marked by a tension between rising trade barriers and the emergence of new bridges. US tariff policy remains a central source of uncertainty, particularly with sector-specific Section 232 duties expected to remain in focus.

Although some tariff threats, such as those linked to Greenland, have been put on hold, their announcement alone has already unsettled markets and altered trade behaviour.

The report notes that front-loading of US imports earlier i...