New Delhi, March 19 -- India's current account deficit is likely to see a sharp downside risk for FY25 GDP, as seen in the sharp positive surprise in February trade data according to a report by the Union Bank of India (UBI). India's trade deficit for February 2025 has seen a rare surplus of USD 14.05 billion.

"With the sharply positive surprise in trade data, we see a downside risk to our earlier FY25 C/A deficit projection of 1.2 per cent." said the report

The report, however, adds that as the uncertainties surrounding export dynamics and commodity prices persist, they maintain a CAD of 1.2 percent for FY26.

"We maintain our FY26 C/A deficit forecast at 1.2 per cent of GDP, as the outlook for exports remains uncertain due to the loom...