New Delhi, Feb. 17 -- India is set to post a record $860 billion overall exports led by services in the current fiscal year, commerce secretary Rajesh Agrawal said -- a number that highlights the country's resilience in battling global headwinds, including high tariff barriers in the US. The secretary cited latest data that showed 6.15% annualised growth in cumulative exports to $720.76 billion in the first 10 months of 2025-26, with around 2.2% year-on-year growth in merchandise exports. Indian merchandise exports have faced a 50% tariff since August in the US, which is India's biggest export market. The two countries arrived at an agreement earlier this month to reduce the same to 18% . India and the US issued a joint statement on February 7, following which the 25% punitive tariff on Indian merchandise (for buying Russian crude) was removed. The US has agreed to reduce the 25% reciprocal tariff to 18%, but this is awaited. As a result of the tariffs, India's exports to the US fell by 21.77% to $6.59 billion in January 2026 compared to $8.43 billion in January 2025. Still, the growth of country's merchandise exports in January 2026 remained in "positive territory" , rising by 0.61% to $36.56 billion as compared to $36.34 billion in January 2025, and services exports in the month is estimated at $43.90 billion, a 26.33% year-on-year growth, Agrawal said Monday, releasing the latest trade data . To be sure, services figures for January are estimates based on conservative extrapolation of the previous month's numbers, as the central bank releases figures with a lag. "In the month of January 2026, total exports (goods and services) is estimated at $80.45 billion, which is 13.17% higher than $71.09 billion achieved in January 2025," Agrawal added; the growth is largely driven by services exports. But Indian merchandise exports haven't faltered either. "Even for merchandise exports, on a cumulative basis in the first 10 months of 2025-26, we have reached $366.63 billion, from $358.75 billion, which is a positive growth of 2.2%," he said. Key drivers of merchandise exports in January 2026 were engineering goods, petroleum , meat, marine, dairy and poultry products, and iron ore. Among countries, the key ones driving Indian exports were the United Arab Emirates (UAE), China, Hong Kong, Netherlands, and Italy, Agrawal said. "Non-petroleum product exports still keep on growing very well. by 4.89% as compared to 2.2% overall in merchandise sector for the first 10 months [of FY26]," he added, explaining that the softening of international petroleum prices impacted India's merchandise exports in terms of value. India imports crude, refines it and exports petroleum products....