Mussoorie, Jan. 16 -- A prolonged dry spell, marked by an acute absence of rainfall and snowfall, has emerged as a serious threat to Uttarakhand's agriculture and horticulture sectors, particularly apple cultivation in the higher reaches of the state, farmers and officials said on Thursday. Growers in the Harsil belt of Uttarkashi district, a key apple-producing region, have sounded the alarm over mounting climatic stress, saying that production could plunge sharply if weather conditions do not improve soon. Apple orchards, which require adequate winter snowfall to complete their chilling hours and ensure healthy flowering, are already showing early signs of distress. Agriculture and horticulture minister Ganesh Joshi said that preliminary assessments indicate a worrying impact on seasonal crops. "According to initial estimates, around 15% of the seasonal crop has been affected due to the absence of rain," he said. Joshi added that officials have been directed to conduct an immediate statewide survey to assess crop damage, quantify losses, and submit a detailed report so that appropriate relief measures can be planned for affected farmers. Meteorological data highlights an emerging pattern of deficient winter rainfall. According to the Meteorological Centre, Dehradun, December rainfall has remained consistently weak over the past five years, with normal or above-normal precipitation recorded only once during this period. December 2025, in particular, recorded a 100% rainfall deficit. In Dharali village of Uttarkashi, which was severely affected by last year's August disaster, farmers say they are now pinning their hopes on apple production for recovery. Ajay Negi, gram pradhan of Dharali, said that families who lost homes and homestays in the deluge are now facing another crisis. "With no rain or snow in November, December, and now extending into January, the situation looks grim. If it does not snow soon, apple flowering will be badly affected, leading to a sharp drop in yield," he said. Local apple grower Satendra Panwar, who owns over 1,800 apple trees in Dharali, expressed concern that the lack of snowfall could invite fungal infections and pests in April. He also warned that depleted snow reserves would lead to water scarcity in summer, affecting irrigation. Neeraj Panwar, another apple grower from Harsil, described the situation as an "impending economic crisis" for farming communities dependent on horticulture. Balak Ram, a farmer from Tulyada village in Uttarkashi district, said , "Situation is grim as there has been no rainfall since November last year. The wheat crop growth has diminished and if the conditions don't become favourable, we will lose our entire crop this year." The impact of the dry spell is not confined to Uttarkashi alone. In Chamoli district, zero rainfall in November and December has affected agriculture and horticulture, with damage estimated between 15 to 20%. JP Tiwari, chief agriculture officer of Chamoli, said that lentil, wheat, and mustard crops have suffered significant damage, while apple cultivation is also under stress due to moisture deficiency and frost-related harm. Dr Sumit Chaudhry, assistant professor at the Agronomy College of Hill Agriculture and in-charge of the Ranichauri observatory in Tehri, said that rain-fed crops like wheat and lentil have shown poor germination and growth due to prolonged dryness since November. Farmers have been advised to undertake manual weeding and hoeing to retain soil moisture, he said. Bharat Singh Kathait, horticulture in-charge of the Dhanaulti apple belt, said that apple trees require 1,000 to 1,500 hours of chilling between 0degC and 7degC to complete their dormancy cycle. "The absence of snowfall has kept ground temperatures higher than usual, disrupting the trees' natural rhythm. This could result in weak flowering, poor fruit setting, smaller apple size, and duller colour, all of which reduce market value," he said. Experts also warned that inadequate winter snow would reduce deep soil moisture, increasing risks of tree dehydration, premature fruit drop, and pest infestation during summer. Kritika Kumari, a senior scientist in food processing in Tehri district, cautioned that reduced wheat and lentil production would disrupt local supply chains and adversely affect self-help groups engaged in food processing. According to IMD data, winter rainfall has been consistently low over the years - 5.4 mm between December 2013 and January 2014, 8.5 mm in 2015-16, less than 2 mm in December 2018, 4.4 mm in December 2023 -January 2024, and zero rainfall between November 1, 2025 and January 13, 2026. CS Tomar, director of the Meteorological Centre, Dehradun, attributed the deficit to weak western disturbances - the primary weather systems that bring winter rain and snow to the Himalayas. He said that between 2020 and 2025, normal or excess December rainfall was recorded only in 2024. Meanwhile, IMD has issued a weather warning for Uttarakhand. Very light rain or snowfall is likely at isolated places above 3,400 metres in Uttarkashi, Chamoli, and Pithoragarh between January 16 and 21. Dense fog and cold wave conditions are expected in the plains, including Haridwar, Nainital plains, Champawat, Dehradun, and Udham Singh Nagar from January 16 to 19. Ground frost may occur at isolated hill locations, potentially affecting agriculture and travel. Farmers across the state are now hoping that the forecast brings at least some relief to avert a deeper crisis in the coming months....