India, March 5 -- Donald Trump's first address in his second term to the joint session of the US Congress on Tuesday confirmed he is making five big bets straddling politics, foreign policy and the economy. How these play out in the next year is the big question.

Trump's first bet is that he can dramatically downsize the US State and its regulatory apparatus, scale back its services, and reduce its international footprint. His support for the Department of Government Efficiency, praise for Elon Musk and recital of what Trump considered instances of waste, abuse and fraud on Tuesday shows that this remaking of the American State will continue. This stems from an ideological conviction against big government, an economic calculus that this...